By Alireza Sepehri
June 2, 2026
FIFA World Cup 2026 Group C Predictions
Market Odds vs Model-X Forecasts
Published Before Kickoff — June 11, 2026
The FIFA World Cup 2026 will be hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Before the tournament begins, we are publishing a full group-stage prediction series comparing two forecasting sources:
- Market Odds — the average odds from FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, OddsChecker, and Bet365.
- Model-X Odds — predictions generated by our AI-powered football forecasting model.
Model-X uses cutting-edge AI algorithms trained on historical football data and enriched with Transfermarkt-style squad valuation information. The model has already been tested on unseen data and has performed well. The 2026 World Cup gives us a clean blind test.
The goal is to publish these forecasts before kickoff, then return after the group stage and compare actual results against both the market and Model-X.
This article focuses on Group C.
Group C Teams
| Team |
| Brazil |
| Morocco |
| Haiti |
| Scotland |
Group C has a clear favorite at the top. Both the market and Model-X expect Brazil to win the group. Morocco is projected as the second-best team, while Scotland is expected to compete but fall short. Haiti enters as the underdog.
Unlike Group A, where the market and Model-X strongly disagreed, Group C shows full agreement on every projected match winner.
That makes this group useful in a different way. It becomes a consensus benchmark. If the final results follow the projection, both forecasting systems gain credibility. If the group produces surprises, it will show how difficult World Cup prediction remains even when market and model agree.
Expected Final Rankings
The rankings below are based only on predicted match winners from the odds.
No simulation is used.
No tie-breaking is required.
Each match is assigned to the outcome with the strongest American odds.
Market-Based Final Ranking
| Rank |
Team |
Predicted Record |
Predicted Points |
| 1 |
Brazil |
3W-0D-0L |
9 |
| 2 |
Morocco |
2W-0D-1L |
6 |
| 3 |
Scotland |
1W-0D-2L |
3 |
| 4 |
Haiti |
0W-0D-3L |
0 |
Market Winner and Runner-Up
| Result |
Team |
| Group Winner |
Brazil |
| Runner-Up |
Morocco |
The market projection is straightforward. Brazil beats all three opponents and finishes first. Morocco loses to Brazil but beats Scotland and Haiti, which puts them second. Scotland beats Haiti but loses to Brazil and Morocco. Haiti finishes fourth.
Model-X Final Ranking
| Rank |
Team |
Predicted Record |
Predicted Points |
| 1 |
Brazil |
3W-0D-0L |
9 |
| 2 |
Morocco |
2W-0D-1L |
6 |
| 3 |
Scotland |
1W-0D-2L |
3 |
| 4 |
Haiti |
0W-0D-3L |
0 |
Model-X Winner and Runner-Up
| Result |
Team |
| Group Winner |
Brazil |
| Runner-Up |
Morocco |
Model-X reaches the same final ranking as the market.
That does not mean every match is equally certain. Some Model-X odds are more compressed than the market odds. But the final predicted winners are identical across all six matches.
Match Prediction Summary
| Match |
Market Pick |
Model-X Pick |
Agreement? |
| Brazil vs Morocco |
Brazil |
Brazil |
Yes |
| Haiti vs Scotland |
Scotland |
Scotland |
Yes |
| Scotland vs Morocco |
Morocco |
Morocco |
Yes |
| Brazil vs Haiti |
Brazil |
Brazil |
Yes |
| Morocco vs Haiti |
Morocco |
Morocco |
Yes |
| Scotland vs Brazil |
Brazil |
Brazil |
Yes |
The market and Model-X agree on all six Group C matches.
The projected group story is clear:
- Brazil wins the group.
- Morocco advances as runner-up.
- Scotland finishes third.
- Haiti finishes fourth.
Detailed Match Predictions
Match 1 — Brazil vs Morocco
| Outcome |
Market Odds |
Model-X Odds |
| Brazil Win |
-160.6 |
+156 |
| Draw |
+287 |
+285 |
| Morocco Win |
+476 |
+184 |
Market Pick: Brazil
Model-X Pick: Brazil
Brazil opens Group C against Morocco in what is likely the strongest match of the group.
The market favors Brazil at -160.6, making them the clear expected winner. Model-X also favors Brazil, with Brazil at +156 compared with Morocco at +184 and the draw at +285.
The market is more aggressive in its confidence. Model-X still selects Brazil but gives Morocco more room to compete. This distinction matters. The two systems agree on the winner, but Model-X does not treat the match as a mismatch.
For Brazil, a win here would immediately put them in control of the group. For Morocco, even a draw would significantly change the qualification picture.
Match 2 — Haiti vs Scotland
| Outcome |
Market Odds |
Model-X Odds |
| Haiti Win |
+545 |
+186 |
| Draw |
+348.6 |
+270 |
| Scotland Win |
-204 |
+162 |
Market Pick: Scotland
Model-X Pick: Scotland
Both systems expect Scotland to beat Haiti.
The market is very clear, pricing Scotland at -204. Model-X also selects Scotland, with Scotland at +162, ahead of Haiti at +186 and the draw at +270.
This is the match Scotland must win to have any realistic chance of challenging Morocco for second place. If Scotland drops points here, their path becomes extremely difficult.
For Haiti, this is probably the most realistic match to target for an upset or a draw. Even though both systems pick Scotland, Model-X’s odds suggest the gap is not as extreme as the market’s odds imply.
Match 3 — Scotland vs Morocco
| Outcome |
Market Odds |
Model-X Odds |
| Scotland Win |
+292 |
+184 |
| Draw |
+224 |
+268 |
| Morocco Win |
+16.8 |
+165 |
Market Pick: Morocco
Model-X Pick: Morocco
This is likely the decisive match for second place.
The market picks Morocco at +16.8, which makes Morocco the strongest outcome among the three. Model-X also picks Morocco, with Morocco at +165 compared with Scotland at +184 and the draw at +268.
This match carries more weight than the table alone suggests. If Morocco wins, they likely secure second place. If Scotland wins, the group becomes much more open.
Both forecasting systems agree that Morocco is the better side. But Model-X again shows a smaller gap than the market. Scotland is not dismissed, but Morocco remains the projected winner.
Match 4 — Brazil vs Haiti
| Outcome |
Market Odds |
Model-X Odds |
| Brazil Win |
-1290 |
+149 |
| Draw |
+1100 |
+263 |
| Haiti Win |
+2470 |
+208 |
Market Pick: Brazil
Model-X Pick: Brazil
This is the most one-sided match in Group C.
The market heavily favors Brazil at -1290. Haiti is priced as a very large underdog at +2470. Model-X also selects Brazil, with Brazil at +149 compared with Haiti at +208 and the draw at +263.
This match is expected to give Brazil another three points and move them close to winning the group.
For Haiti, the goal will likely be damage control, defensive structure, and trying to stay competitive for as long as possible. A result here would be one of the biggest surprises in the group.
Match 5 — Morocco vs Haiti
| Outcome |
Market Odds |
Model-X Odds |
| Morocco Win |
-295 |
+171 |
| Draw |
+405 |
+255 |
| Haiti Win |
+812.5 |
+185 |
Market Pick: Morocco
Model-X Pick: Morocco
Both systems expect Morocco to beat Haiti.
The market has Morocco as a strong favorite at -295. Model-X also picks Morocco, but the odds are tighter: Morocco at +171 and Haiti at +185.
This is an important difference. The market sees Morocco as clearly superior. Model-X still picks Morocco but gives Haiti more respect than the market does.
For Morocco, this is the match they must win if they want to control the runner-up race. For Haiti, this is another opportunity to disrupt the group and test whether Model-X’s closer pricing was justified.
Match 6 — Scotland vs Brazil
| Outcome |
Market Odds |
Model-X Odds |
| Scotland Win |
+562.5 |
+199 |
| Draw |
+360.75 |
+288 |
| Brazil Win |
-215.75 |
+144 |
Market Pick: Brazil
Model-X Pick: Brazil
Brazil closes the group against Scotland.
The market picks Brazil at -215.75. Model-X also picks Brazil, with Brazil at +144. This is one of Model-X’s clearest Group C selections.
For Brazil, this match is projected to complete a perfect group stage. For Scotland, it is a difficult final assignment, especially if they need points to challenge Morocco for second place.
Both systems expect Brazil to win and finish with nine points.
Biggest Market vs Model-X Disagreements
| Match |
Market View |
Model-X View |
Why It Matters |
| Brazil vs Morocco |
Brazil clear favorite |
Brazil favorite, but Morocco closer |
Tests Brazil’s control of the group |
| Haiti vs Scotland |
Scotland strong favorite |
Scotland favorite, but less dominant |
Important for Scotland’s qualification hopes |
| Morocco vs Haiti |
Morocco strong favorite |
Morocco favorite, but Haiti closer |
Tests whether Haiti is undervalued |
There are no disagreements in predicted winners.
The difference is in confidence. The market is often more aggressive, especially when rating favorites. Model-X usually produces tighter odds and gives underdogs more room.
That is useful for later evaluation. After the group stage, we will not only ask whether the winner was predicted correctly. We will also ask whether the confidence level looked reasonable.
Group C Verdict
The market projection is:
| Rank |
Market Projection |
| 1 |
Brazil |
| 2 |
Morocco |
| 3 |
Scotland |
| 4 |
Haiti |
Model-X projects the same final ranking:
| Rank |
Model-X Projection |
| 1 |
Brazil |
| 2 |
Morocco |
| 3 |
Scotland |
| 4 |
Haiti |
This is one of the clearest groups so far.
Brazil is projected to win all three matches. Morocco is projected to beat Scotland and Haiti, which gives them second place. Scotland finishes third, and Haiti finishes fourth.
The most important match is Scotland vs Morocco. If Morocco wins, the projected table likely holds. If Scotland wins, the second-place race changes immediately.
Final Thoughts
Group C is a consensus group.
Both the betting market and Model-X project the same six match winners and the same final standings. Brazil and Morocco are expected to qualify. Scotland is expected to compete but fall short. Haiti is projected to finish last.
That makes Group C less dramatic than Group A but still valuable for evaluation.
When both systems agree, the question becomes different. We are no longer testing disagreement. We are testing whether consensus itself is reliable.
After the group stage, we will compare:
- Actual match results
- Market picks
- Model-X picks
- Final group standings
- Predicted winner and runner-up
- Actual qualified teams
If Brazil and Morocco advance, both systems will look strong in Group C. If Scotland or Haiti disrupt the projection, it will show that even clear groups can surprise us.
For now, the predictions are locked before kickoff.
Group C is ready for the blind test.