By Saeed Mirshekari
June 5, 2025
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The Numbers Behind the US-China Trade War: A Statistical Deep Dive
The US-China trade war has been one of the most significant economic confrontations of the 21st century. While political rhetoric and diplomatic stances often dominate headlines, behind the scenes lies a wealth of data that tells the real story—how tariffs, trade deficits, and retaliatory measures have reshaped global commerce. In this blog, we will explore the key statistics that quantify the impact of the US-China trade war, providing a detailed, data-backed understanding of its scope and consequences.
1. Background: The Onset of the Trade War
Timeline of Key Events
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March 2018 : The United States imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
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July 2018 : US imposes 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods.
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August 2018 - May 2019 : Escalating tariffs between the two nations covering over $360 billion in goods.
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January 2020 : Phase One trade deal signed.
Initial Motivations
The US aimed to:
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Reduce the trade deficit with China.
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Address alleged intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers.
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Protect American industries from unfair competition.
2. The Trade Deficit: What the Numbers Say
US Trade Deficit with China (2010–2023)
| Year |
US Exports to China ($B) |
US Imports from China ($B) |
Trade Deficit ($B) |
| 2010 |
91.9 |
364.9 |
-273.0 |
| 2015 |
115.9 |
483.2 |
-367.3 |
| 2017 |
130.4 |
505.6 |
-375.2 |
| 2018 |
120.3 |
539.5 |
-419.2 |
| 2019 |
106.4 |
451.7 |
-345.3 |
| 2020 |
124.5 |
434.7 |
-310.2 |
| 2021 |
151.1 |
506.4 |
-355.3 |
| 2022 |
154.0 |
536.3 |
-382.3 |
| 2023 |
150.0 (est.) |
427.2 (est.) |
-277.2 (est.) |
Key Takeaway : Despite significant tariffs and policy shifts, the trade deficit remained substantial, with only temporary dips during the height of the trade war.
3. Tariffs: The Weapon of Choice
Tariff Timeline and Coverage
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By late 2019, over $550 billion worth of Chinese goods were subject to US tariffs.
-
China retaliated with tariffs on $185 billion worth of US goods.
Average Tariff Rates
| Country |
Pre-Trade War Tariff Rate |
Peak Trade War Tariff Rate |
| US on China |
~3.1% |
~21.0% |
| China on US |
~8.0% |
~21.8% |
(Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics)
4. Sectoral Impact: Winners and Losers
US Agriculture: A Heavy Hit
Soybean Exports to China
| Year |
Volume (Million Metric Tons) |
Value ($B) |
| 2017 |
32.9 |
12.2 |
| 2018 |
16.6 |
3.1 |
| 2019 |
19.7 |
8.0 |
| 2020 |
36.1 |
14.0 |
Observation : US soybean exports to China were halved in 2018, hitting American farmers hard, prompting the US government to issue $28 billion in aid to farmers between 2018–2019.
Technology Sector: Complex Supply Chains
Many US companies faced higher input costs:
Manufacturing Relocation Trends
Some companies diversified supply chains:
| Country |
FDI Increase (% YoY) Post-2018 |
| Vietnam |
+81% |
| India |
+33% |
| Mexico |
+26% |
Many US firms started reshoring or near-shoring strategies to mitigate risks.
5. Consumer Price Effects
While tariffs were imposed on foreign goods, the costs were often passed to US consumers.
Cost Analysis
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Average US household paid an additional $800/year in higher prices due to tariffs.
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Inflation Contribution : Trade war tariffs contributed to an estimated 0.2-0.4% increase in inflation annually during the peak years.
(Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
6. Stock Market Reaction
S&P 500 vs. US-China Trade War Events
Key trade war announcements caused temporary market drops:
-
May 2019 : Dow fell 600+ points after failed trade talks.
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August 2019 : Yield curve inverted, and S&P 500 declined 3% after China retaliated.
However, markets rebounded each time due to monetary stimulus and long-term optimism.
7. The Phase One Trade Deal (2020)
Key Commitments by China
| Sector |
Pledged Increase in US Imports (2020–2021) |
| Manufacturing |
$75.7 billion |
| Agriculture |
$32.0 billion |
| Energy |
$52.4 billion |
| Services |
$37.9 billion |
| Total |
$197.9 billion |
Actual Purchases (2020–2021)
China met only ~57% of its commitments:
| Year |
Actual Import Total ($B) |
Compliance Rate |
| 2020 |
73.6 |
59% |
| 2021 |
89.4 |
56% |
Shortfall Reason : COVID-19 disruptions, global demand shifts, and logistical issues.
8. Macroeconomic Impact
US GDP Growth
| Year |
GDP Growth (%) |
Trade War Context |
| 2017 |
2.3 |
Pre-trade war |
| 2018 |
2.9 |
Initial tariff phase |
| 2019 |
2.3 |
Peak tensions |
| 2020 |
-3.4 |
Pandemic + trade uncertainties |
| 2021 |
5.7 |
Recovery phase |
Trade war contributed to uncertainty, business investment delays, and reallocation of supply chains.
China’s Economic Response
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Chinese GDP slowed to 6.1% in 2019 , its slowest pace in nearly 30 years.
-
China ramped up domestic consumption, diversified trading partners, and emphasized tech independence.
9. Global Ripple Effects
Supply Chain Diversification
Multinational corporations began reshaping supply networks:
WTO and Global Trade Norms
10. Long-Term Strategic Shifts
US Strategy Evolution
China’s Response
11. Public Opinion and Political Reactions
US Public Opinion (Pew Research)
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2017: 47% viewed China unfavorably.
-
2020: 73% viewed China unfavorably.
-
2023: 83% viewed China unfavorably.
Political discourse around “decoupling” has become mainstream in both nations.
12. Current Trade Landscape (2024–2025)
Ongoing Tariff Structures
As of 2024:
Evolving Dynamics
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Despite tensions, China remained the 3rd-largest US trading partner .
-
Tech, pharmaceuticals, and energy are the new focal points of the trade rivalry.
Conclusion: A War Beyond Numbers?
The US-China trade war, while driven by policy and politics, has fundamentally been a war of numbers. Trillions of dollars in trade flows, billions in tariffs, and millions of jobs and consumers have felt the ripple effects. The data reveals that while short-term deficits adjusted slightly, the broader economic and strategic implications are far more lasting.
What we learn from this statistical journey is that in an interconnected world, economic battles are never fought in isolation. They reshape global supply chains, alter the course of corporate strategies, and redefine political alliances. In the case of the US-China trade war, the numbers speak loud and clear—this was not just a trade spat, but a global inflection point.
References
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U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Data
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Peterson Institute for International Economics
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Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Pew Research Center
-
World Bank Trade Statistics
-
WTO Trade Policy Review
-
Bloomberg, Reuters, and Wall Street Journal economic reporting
-
USTR Phase One Trade Deal Documentation
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UNCTAD Investment Trends Monitor
Saeed Mirshekari
Saeed is currently a Director of Data Science in Mastercard and the Founder / Director of OFallon Labs LLC. He is a former research scholar at LIGO team (Physics Nobel Prize of 2017).